Will Israel and Iran start World War III?

Tensions have continued to rise this past week in the Middle East. It has many warning, including Donald Trump, that this could be the tipping point for a third World War.

• For context: World War I was famously set off by a minor conflict that dragged major powers into the world’s most lethal war (up to that point). 

Could the same thing be happening here?

The short answer: Probably not. Most experts think whatever happens next in the Middle East (though still terrible and deadly) won’t be enough to draw the world’s three superpowers—the U.S., Russia, and China—into a direct conflict.

But but but: Russia and China would love to see the U.S. get bogged down in a lose-lose conflict in the Middle East while they focus elsewhere. 

• A major war or proxy war between Israel and Iran could draw U.S. American attention and resources away from preventing or effectively responding to Russian or Chinese aggression elsewhere, either in Eastern Europe or Southeast Asia.

• Plus, public support in the U.S. is already plummeting for American interventionism. The public would likely not support a direct confrontation with Russia or China—barring a direct attack on the U.S. 

The big picture: Israel’s wars and ongoing genocide in Gaza will probably not start a third World War, but they could complicate or jeopardize U.S. American responses to Russian or Chinese aggression elsewhere, either in Ukraine or Taiwan. 

Go deeper: If you want some truly scary reading (it is almost Halloween, after all) check out RAND’s memo on understanding the risk of escalation in Ukraine or The Week’s breakdown on what would happen if China invades Taiwan.

👀 Under the Radar

Here are some stories the algorithms might be keeping out of your feed.

• Donald Trump makes an outrageous claim against climate change just hours after Hurricane Helene hit Tennessee and the Carolinas…

• Despite the fact that scientists think climate change caused more than half of Helene’s rainfall.

• J.D. Vance blamed migrant workers for the housing crisis. Here’s who’s actually to blame for insane housing prices.

• Trump says crime is out of control. The numbers tell a different story.

• Monday will mark the one year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific terrorist attack on Israel that killed 1,195 people. Here’s how many Palestinians have been slaughtered in response.

• Over one million people have been displaced in Lebanon thanks to Israel’s ongoing attacks against that country.

• The president of the International Longshoreman Association refuses to take sh*t from a Fox News “reporter” during this live interview.

• Here’s what the Longshoreman want from their strike—and why it’s economically justified.

• The campaign to unionize Starbucks workers just crossed an important milestone.

• A new poll reveals how many Americans want to move away from the Electoral College.

The Deadly Dangers of Deregulation

For years, Republicans and the business world have pushed for greater deregulation across all industries—but recent events have proven, again, just how dangerous that can be.

• In September, a listeria outbreak originating from a Boar’s Head deli meat plant killed 10 people and sickened 59 others across 19 states.
  

• It turns out the plant was a serial violator of food safety standards; federal investigators cited the plant 69 times this year alone. 

Investigators repeatedly found bugs, mold, and mildew at the plant, as well as blood on the floor and a rancid smell coming from a cooler. 

• But because our food safety apparatus is “largely toothless,” the plant was allowed to continue operating, leading to the senseless deaths of 10 human beings.

The Big Picture: Critics say that continued deregulation will put even more lives at risk.

• In 2019, the Trump administration relaxed food safety standards at pork slaughterhouses, allowing them to “self police.” That’s led to a doubling of violations across the industry.

In the federal budget for next year, President Biden has recommended increasing the USDA’s and the FDA’s budgets—which would help curb these violations—while House Republicans want to slash their funding. 

Yes, and: Residents near a chemical plant in Georgia that exploded say the plant was a danger that had been hiding in plain sight for years.

✊ Get Involved

Don’t just read the news, take action and shape it! Here are some ways to get involved around this week’s major stories.

• Join a protest against Israel’s genocide in Gaza: Actions are planned across the country for this Saturday, October 5 to mark one year of Israel’s genocide against Palestinians.

• Longshoreman go on strike: Here are simple steps you can take to help striking workers generally.

• Let you dollars do the fighting: Make a donation to support Kamala against her fascist opponent. Because yes—Republicans do expect this to happen after the election, which is only 33 days away, if Trump wins.