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❌ Short-term problems

The short term problem at Social Security can be summed up in one word: chaos.

• Given its enormous popularity, Trump pledged on the campaign—and then reiterated as president—that he would not cut Social Security (or Medicare or Medicaid) benefits.

Nevertheless, that hasn’t stopped Trump from trying to cripple the program in other ways.

• Mass layoffs and the meddling of Elon Musk and “DOGE” have led to widespread confusion and service delays—and this could just be the start of things.

WHAT’S GOING ON: Despite serving a massive population—some 73 million people, or 1 out of every 5 Americans—Trump laid out plans in February to cut 7,000 Social Security Administration workers, or 12% of its total workforce.

• So far, more than 2,500 people have taken buyouts, but the mass layoffs have been slowed down in court, thanks to lawsuits brought by unions and Democratic states.

Still, a spokesperson for the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) union, which represents 25,000 SSA workers, told NPR that most of the 2,000 who left were in field offices.

• Workers in field offices are usually the primary point of contact between the public and Social Security, answering phone calls and helping visitors who come in.

The union says 40 field offices have lost at least 25% of their staff so far, and some more than half.

AS A RESULT: The agency’s own data shows wait times for phone services have risen sharply since Trump took over.

• Last year, the average wait time to reach Social Security by phone was about an hour; this year, it’s already climbed to more than an hour and a half.

At the same time, call volume has exploded.

• In November 2024, the agency handled around 6.5 million calls. Last month, it jumped to 10.4 million.

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE: In addition to the layoffs, Elon Musk and his goons have also done a number on the SSA’s tech infrastructure.

• Social Security’s website keeps crashing—sometimes for as long as a day—thanks to a new “fraud” check system imposed by “DOGE.”

Not to mention, the administration is planning a move that could lead to even more layoffs across the federal government—including at Social Security—meaning even more chaos may be coming.

A DIRE WARNING: All of this prompted a former head of the SSA under Biden, Martin O’Malley, to warn that a disruption of benefits may be coming in the next 60-90 days.

• “I truly believe there’s going to be some interruption of benefits for some period of time, and I believe that will probably happen in the very near future,” O’Malley reportedly said. “I’ve never hoped I was wrong so much.”

At the same time, Trump and his cronies have launched their own disinformation campaign to try and convince Americans that there is an epidemic of Social Security fraud.

There’s not.

THE VERDICT: Trump chaos means payment of benefits could be delayed and getting benefits could become much more difficult.

• And Trump and Musk’s actions may be setting the stage for even further cuts—or a push to privatize Social Security.

But the good news is that Social Security’s structure and funding remain largely protected from unilateral executive changes—meaning any real change to the program or benefits would take an act of Congress.

• The less good news is that Social Security is facing a long-term problem that is going to require Congress to get its act together and actually do something.

‼️ Long-term problems

While Trump’s chaos is creating a short-term crisis, a much bigger problem is looming: The Social Security Trust Fund is projected to run out of money by 2033.

SOME BACKGROUND: Social Security is funded by payroll taxes: today's workers pay for today's retirees, and any surplus goes into a government-run Trust Fund.

• Up until 2021, Social Security took in more than it paid out, putting the extra in the Trust Fund.

But since 2021, the exact opposite has been happening: Social Security is paying out more money than it’s taking in, and dipping into the trust fund to pay everybody’s benefits.

• At the current rate, if nothing changes, Social Security says the Trust Fund will totally run out by 2033—eight years from now.

WHAT THIS MEANS: It’s important to understand that this doesn’t mean Social Security is “going bankrupt.”

• A totally depleted Trust Fund would mean Social Security would only pay out what it collects from current payroll taxes, which would cover about 79% of benefits.

That means most people on Social Security would see an automatic 21% reduction in benefits—unless Congress acts.

• Additionally, if nothing is done, that 21% reduction in benefits could grow as more and more Boomers—and Gen X’ers—retire.

THE GOOD NEWS: The good news is that we have some time before doomsday, as the Trust Fund won’t be fully depleted until November 2033—but progressives and conservatives are pitching drastically different plans to fix the problem.

• One plan taxes the wealthy, the other plan screws workers.

THE PROGRESSIVE PLAN: In order to help close the gap, Progressives want rich people to pay their fair share.

• Right now, wages above $176,100 are not subject to Social Security payroll taxes.

That means Elon Musk and someone making $180,000 a year pay the same amount in payroll taxes.

• Progressives want to keep the current limit, but kick in payroll taxes again after $250k per year. This ensures that only the richest Americans—the top 2%—will see a tax increase.

They also want to tax capital gains—money made from selling stocks, bonds, or other assets—which are not currently taxed at all for Social Security.

• At the same time, they want to increase benefits for everyone up to $2,400 a year.

This plan is backed by Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, and others—and they say it will fully fund Social Security past the year 2096.

THE REGRESSIVE PLAN: Rather than fully funding Social Security, conservatives instead want to cut benefits—or even worse—privatize the whole system.

• The latest plan from Republicans would raise the full retirement age from 67 to 69, while cutting benefits 12%.

Others want to “privatize” the system, turning guaranteed benefits into a Wall Street gamble.

• Privatization would expose the only retirement savings millions of Americans have to the chaos of market crashes, hidden fees, and the risk that a lifetime of hard work could disappear in a single downturn.

At the same time, privatizing Social Security would be a HUGE handout to America’s super wealthy.

• It would give trillions of Americans’ hard earned benefits over to corporations, and allow Wall Street fund managers and stock traders to rake in billions.

It’s truly conservatives’ wet dream: socialism for the rich, rugged individualism for everybody else.

WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN: The fate of Social Security will ultimately depend on who’s in power as we inch closer to midnight (November 2033).

• Whichever Republican follows Trump will likely point to DOGE-infected chaos at Social Security as proof that the system needs privatized.

If progressives can wrest control of the Democratic Party away from billionaires, they will likely go with a plan that raises taxes on the wealthy. But that’s a big IF.

THE VERDICT: Saving Social Security isn’t complicated.

• The money is there—the question is whether politicians are willing to ask the wealthy to pay their fair share, or whether they’ll make working Americans pay the price instead.

👀 What you can do

The short and long term problems facing Social Security could have a profound impact on your life whether you’re already retired or retiring in 2052 (not that I’m counting the days).

• But the good news is that either way, there are ways to protect yourself now—and work towards the long term safety of Social Security.

If you are retired or close to retiring, there are a number of practical steps you should take right now to protect your Social Security benefits.

#1. Check your Social Security records right now. Make sure your earnings history is correct at ssa.gov/myaccount.

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